Abstract

Journal of Actuarial Practice

Volume 11, 2004


Credibility Theory and Geometry

Elias S.W. Shiu and Fuk Yum Sing

Abstract

We present a geometric approach to studying greatest accuracy credibility theory. Our main tool is the concept of orthogonal projections. We show, for example, that to determine the Bühlmann credibility premium is to find the coefficients of the minimum-norm vector in an affine space spanned by certain orthogonal random variables. Our approach is illustrated by deriving various common credibility formulas. Several equivalent forms of the credibility factor Z are derived by means of similar triangles.

Key words and phrases: Greatest accuracy credibility theory, Bühlmann credibility premium, credibility factor, affine space, inner product, orthogonal projection, Bühlmann-Straub model

Corresponding Author:

Elias S.W. Shiu

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science

University of Iowa

Iowa City IA 52242-1409

E-mail: eshiu@stat.uiowa.edu


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