Abstract

Journal of Actuarial Practice

Volume 11, 2004


Decision Tree Analysis of Terminated Life Insurance Policies

Robert Keng Heong Lian, Yuan Wu and Hian Chye Koh

Abstract

Statistical methods such as regression and survival analysis have traditionally been used to investigate the factors affecting the duration of terminated life insurance policies. This study explores a different approach: it uses a more recently developed data mining technique called decision trees. By sequentially partitioning the data to maximize differences in the dependent variable (duration in this study), the decision trees technique is good at identifying data segments with significant differences in the dependent variable. This identification can be useful when a company is trying to understand the factors driving or associated with the termination of life insurance policies. Decision trees also have an advantage over other techniques such as linear regression in their ability to detect nonlinear and other complex relationships that are more likely to exist in any practical data set.

Key words and phrases: data mining, life insurance policies, termination, persistency, lapses

Corresponding Author:

Hian Chye Koh

Nanyang Business School

Nanyang Technological University

Singapore

SINGAPORE  639798

E-mail: ahckoh@ntu.edu.sg


© Copyright Absalom Press, Inc.